Tesla Stock Nails January Rebound With Earnings Due

Tesla (TSLA) reports fourth-quarter earnings late Wednesday, with investors likely to focus on Elon Musk’s 2023 guidance and goals for the EV giant. Tesla stock edged down early Wednesday.


After a terrible 2022, during which Tesla stock plunged sharply in December, shares tumbled again to start 2023. However, Tesla has bounced since its big price cuts announced Jan. 6 for vehicles in China. Analysts and investors will look closely at results on Wednesday for a better idea of ​​what Tesla is expecting for 2o23.

Tesla stock dropped 1% in pre-market trade. TSLA shares pared early losses Tuesday, edging up 0.1% by the close. Shares advanced 7.7% to 143.75 Monday after shooting up 4.9% Friday.

Tesla Earnings

Estimates: Analysts forecast earnings jumping 33% to $1.13 per share in the fourth quarter. At the end of Dec. 2022, analysts predicted EPS of $1.25. Currently, analysts set the revenue target at 39% growth, to $24.67 billion.

Earnings: Check Wednesday after the market closes.

Tesla already announced its deliveries hit a record 405,278 in the fourth quarter. This missed lowered forecasts despite aggressive year-end incentives. Vehicle deliveries jumped 31% vs. a year earlier and nearly 18% vs. Q3’s 343,830. The deliveries also swelled 40% to 1,313,851 in 2022. That was well below the company’s 50% growth goal.

Analysts had expected Q4 Tesla deliveries of roughly 420,000, whittled down significantly from higher estimates. Tesla’s Q3 deliveries also had fallen short.

Tesla production came in at 439,701 in the fourth quarter, exceeding deliveries by more than 34,000. In Q3, its output topped sales by just over 22,000. Tesla production came in at 439,701 in the fourth quarter, exceeding deliveries by more than 34,000. In Q3, its output topped sales by just over 22,000.

With output ramping up at the company’s Berlin and Austin, Texas, plants, Tesla’s overall production capacity is now well above 450,000 a quarter.

Tesla unit sales came in at 1,313,851 for 2022, up 40% vs. 2021 but below the 50% target. The Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover accounted for the vast majority of sales. The high-end Model S and X vehicles accounted for the rest.

Meanwhile, the Cybertruck is slated to arrive in 2023, which would be Tesla’s first new model since the Model Y launched in early 2020. The oft-delayed truck will begin “early production” in midyear, according to Musk. Other reports say the Cybertruck will begin mass production in late 2023.

Tesla also began delivering its long haul Semi trucks to PepsiCo (PEP) in December. It’s unclear how many semi-trucks will be produced in 2023, with key prices and specs still unclear. Tesla is planning to build a $3.5 billion manufacturing facility in Northern Nevada for Semi trucks, according to the Nevada Independent.

Tesla Stock: Earnings Come After Price Cuts

Tesla’s Q4 earnings follow Tesla China EV registrations bouncing in the week of Jan. 5-16, following recent big price cuts. The most recent registration numbers appear to reflect some benefit from Tesla’s Jan. 6 decision to cut prices in China.

Tesla slashed prices for the Model 3 and Y in China, with the base Model 3 cut more than 13% to $33,570. Local media reports in China suggested Tesla had received 30,000 orders within three days of the announced cuts, according to CnEVPost.

Tesla has also announced price cuts in the US and Europe. This will make more models eligible for tax incentives of $7,500 under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

The EV giant slashed US Model 3 prices by 6%-14%, depending on the trim. A standard trim Model 3 RWD has been cut from $3,000 to $43,990. With the IRA tax credit applied to the vehicle, consumers that meet income limits would be paying $36,240.

The Performance Model 3 trim was cut $9,000 to $53,990, getting under the $55,000 limit for tax credits. Meanwhile, Tesla’s base Model Y has been slashed $13,000, or nearly 20%, to $52,990, also below the tax credit limit. The Performance variant for that vehicle has been cut to $56,990, also down to $13,000.

Tesla Stock

TSLA shares rebounded Friday and Monday after two sessions of losses. Tesla stock edged lower Tuesday afternoon, hitting resistance at the stock’s 10-week moving average.

Tesla stock has now climbed up 16% since Jan. 6 lower than 101.81. A number of analysts have also weighed in on Tesla stock, cutting price targets.

TSLA shares rank third in the Auto Manufacturers industry group. Tesla stock has a 42 Composite Rating out of 99. The stock has an 5 Relative Strength Rating, an exclusive IBD Stock Checkup gauge for share-price movement. The EPS rating is 75.

Please follow Kit Norton on Twitter @KitNorton for more coverage.


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